创新驱动产业转型升级研究——基于中国1998-2016年省域面板数据

为了探究创新驱动产业转型升级的作用机制,构建了创新投入与创新产出对产业转型升级内涵质量与外显效应的影响模型,并提出研究假设。基于中国1998-2016年省域面板数据,借助Eviews 9.0计量软件,采用固定效应模型进行实证研究。结果表明,所提出的研究假设均得到验证。创新产出对产业转型升级内涵质量具有积极影响,创新产出的各表征变量(专利授权数、技术市场合同成交金额、新产品销售收入)每增长1%,产业转型升级内涵质量的表征变量人均国内生产总值将提高0.014 8%～0.051 1%。创新投入对产业转型升级外显效应具有积极影响,创新投入的各表征变量(R&D经费内部支出、R&D人员全时当量)每增加1%,产业转型升级外显效应的表征变量产业结构层次系数将提高0.007 1%～0.010 5%。因此,创新能够驱动产业转型升级,但创新投入与创新产出对产业转型升级的影响机制并不相同。研究结果为创新驱动产业转型升级问题的研究提供了一个新的研究范式,对实施创新驱动发展战略、促进产业转型升级有借鉴意义。     

One size doesn’t fit all: A project designing small-scale economic development projects

The authors describe an innovative active learning strategy for a course on the economics of developing countries—a project designing a small-scale economic development project. Student teams research issues faced by developing countries and identify a specific problem in a specific locale. Students then create a detailed, feasible plan to alleviate the problem. Student plans include five key components: justification, implementation, budget, funding and evaluation. After having implemented this project for six years, the authors believe it has the potential to enhance learning and improve analytical, creative problem-solving and research skills. Results from a spring 2017 survey, where students respond favorably to the project, are discussed.     

产业集聚、市场集中对区域创新能力的作用——基于京津冀、长三角两大经济圈制造业的比较

产业集聚和市场集中是影响区域创新能力的重要因素。本文考察了京津冀、长三角两大经济圈制造业产业集聚与市场集中对区域技术创新能力的作用。实证分析结果表明：两大经济圈制造业集聚与市场集中均在一定程度上促进了区域创新能力的提升，但由于两大区域体制机制条件、创新环境、产业组织形态等不同，制造业产业集聚影响区域技术创新的程度、特征与路径也存在一定差别。两大经济圈应采取差异化集群发展方式，加快推进制造业集群升级，特别是应抢抓第四次工业革命发展机遇，提升制造业智能化水平，提升区域创新能力水平。     

A tale of two Italies: ‘access-orders’ and the Italian regional divide

ABSTRACT

This paper uses the ‘access orders’ paradigm developed by North, Wallis, and Weingast [(2009). Violence and social order: A conceptual framework for interpreting recorded human history. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press] to analyse the case of the Italian North–South economic divide. In line with their framework, we collect and discuss several social and political indicators over the long-run, at the regional level. Firstly we looked at data on the pre-conditions for the establishment of an open-access order, such as murders per capita (a proxy for control over violence), voting turnout and referendums participation (proxies for political legitimacy), and the impersonality of exchange. We then showed evidence of different access orders in the North and in the South, using the information on human capital formation, women participation in the labour market, and referendum results. On the basis of this evidence, we argue that, despite being part of the same State and subject to the same formal institutions, the North of the country progressively developed into an open-access order, while the South remained a form of limited access order.

Institutional differences are linked to specific aspects of the economic performance of the two areas, thus the ‘access order’ paradigm appears to be an effective conceptual scheme to explain the North–South economic divide.     

Large scale infrastructure investment and economic performance – a case study of Oresund

We analyse the effect of a large scale infrastructure investment, namely the construction of the Oresund bridge, on the local and supra-regional economy. We employ the synthetic control method to construct counterfactual regions that mimic the trajectory of Malmo and Southern Sweden without treatment. Our results point to a positive effect. However, placebo tests in space and time only reveal statistical significance at a larger regional level. The results suggest that spillover effects are eminent.     

Technological leadership and sectorial employment growth: A spatial econometric analysis for U.S. counties

This paper studies the determinants of technological catch‐up considering spatial and sectoral aggregation of industries. We investigate how geographical and technological proximity to the technology leader impact regional employment growth. We model technological progress by means of a hierarchical process of catch‐up to the technology leader. We also incorporate measures for knowledge spillover effects to test the roles of competition, specialisation, and diversity at the industry level. Empirical results using data at the county level for different economic sectors (2‐dig NAICS) for the United States indicate that human capital plays a crucial role in promoting sectoral employment growth. The association between technological/geographical distance to the technology leader and employment growth varies across sectors.     

Rural credit and the time allocation of agricultural households: The case of PRONAF in Brazil

This paper evaluates the impact of Brazil's National Program to Strengthen Family Farming (PRONAF) on the time allocation of household members. We use data from the 2014 Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios, and we apply propensity score methods to complex surveys recently recommended in the literature. We find that PRONAF helps to increase focus on agricultural activities, but it also stimulates female partners to engage in unpaid work. The results show significant effects of PRONAF on child labor and on the gender‐specific division of labor within households, although it does not have the usual adverse effects of rural credit programs on school attendance.     

A field experiment to estimate the effects of anchoring and framing on residents’ willingness to purchase water runoff management technologies

Watersheds throughout the world have been severely polluted by nutrient-laden runoff that comes from industrial, agricultural, and residential sources. Efforts to reduce this runoff have focused on industrial and agricultural sources, while little attention has been paid to encouraging residents to reduce runoff from their properties. To study residents’ willingness to adopt landscaping practices that reduce runoff, we conducted a field experiment in the Delaware River watershed. In the experiment, over three hundred adults participated in a series of random-price auctions that revealed their willingness to pay (WTP) for five products that reduce nutrient runoff. To study how WTP can be influenced by attributes of the choice architecture, we randomized the starting bid values (anchors) and the way in which the external benefits of the five practices were framed. Compared to a neutral framing, a positive framing (using the product can improve water quality) increased average WTP by about one-third, while the estimated effect of a negative framing (failing to use the product can worsen water quality) was also positive, but smaller and not statistically different from zero. The estimated effect on average WTP from the anchor depends on how bids of $0 are modeled, but the results imply that higher anchors lead to higher WTP. Although we believe the magnitudes of our results should be considered suggestive and we recommend replications with higher statistical power, the results add to the evidence base that environmental programs can achieve policy-relevant gains in program performance through a series of small changes to the decision environment.     

杭州湾都市圈利用FDI的地域差异分析及其对策研究

近年来外商直接投资(FDI)已经成为带动杭州湾都市圈出口增长,推动区域经济发展的重要因素。但由于各个地方利用外资的市场基础和投资环境的差异,杭州湾各个城市利用FDI很不平衡。本文通过运用因子分析的方法,对杭州湾都市圈利用FDI的水平进行综合评价,并提出了相对的对策建议,对促进杭州湾经济的平衡发展具有一定的现实意义。     

河南省高铁经济发展研究及对策

高铁经济是加快中原经济区建设、实现中原崛起、河南振兴的重要保障。论文针对2014-2019年河南省高速铁路的发展状况进行调研分析,选取2014-2019年高速铁路营业里程与河南省国民生产总值统计数据,用回归分析法构建高铁营业里程和河南省GDP总量的回归方程。通过回归分析法,对比高速铁路带来的各指标的变化,分析高速铁路开通后对河南省经济的具体影响。